Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 52.0%). Look for Eller on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Eller wins 61.3% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 51.9% vs Zibanejad 51.8% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 51.6%
Defensive zone
Eller 50.6%
Neutral zone
Eller 52.3%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Eller
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Eller
Zibanejad
Last 6: Eller 4-2 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
3
1
Eller
Zibanejad
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Eller
Zibanejad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (650)
52.9% (870)
-0.1%
Power Play
69.2% (13)
53.5% (43)
+15.7%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (88)
46.2% (143)
-0.7%
On power play, Eller has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Eller is 61.3% vs right-shot opponents (225).
Eller shoots left. Zibanejad is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (748).
Home / Away
Eller
Zibanejad
Home
52.6% (340)
55.1% (501)
Away
51.8% (411)
49.2% (555)
By Period
Eller
Zibanejad
P1
52.4%
57.5%
P2
54.1%
50.7%
P3
50.0%
47.9%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.3%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.2%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 14:37 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 07:11 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2 | 18:52 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2 | 10:54 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2 | 07:30 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2 | 07:27 | Offensive | Lars Eller |