Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 52.3%). Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 51.9% vs McLeod 52.1% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 56.6%
Defensive zone
McLeod 54.4%
Neutral zone
Eller 60.0%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Eller
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Eller
McLeod
Last 8: Eller 2-6 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
4
Eller
McLeod
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Eller
McLeod
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (650)
52.9% (904)
-0.1%
Power Play
69.2% (13)
57.6% (59)
+11.6%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (88)
49.0% (241)
-3.5%
On power play, Eller has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Eller is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Eller shoots left. McLeod is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (784).
Home / Away
Eller
McLeod
Home
52.6% (340)
51.8% (612)
Away
51.8% (411)
52.9% (592)
By Period
Eller
McLeod
P1
52.4%
55.4%
P2
54.1%
50.8%
P3
50.0%
51.6%
OT
50.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.2%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 14:03 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 11:18 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 1 | 17:28 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 1 | 10:57 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 10:42 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 06:20 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 01:16 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 3 | 10:16 | Neutral | Lars Eller |