Scouting Report
Connor McMichael holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McMichael on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). McMichael wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.2% vs Carlsson 37.1% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 77.2%
Defensive zone
McMichael 77.1%
Neutral zone
McMichael 80.5%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 79.2%
79.2%
20.8%
McMichael
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
McMichael
Carlsson
Last 8: McMichael 6-2 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
1
McMichael
Carlsson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McMichael
Carlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McMichael
5
0
McMichael
Carlsson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
43.4% (761)
34.4% (535)
+9.0%
Power Play
40.7% (59)
42.9% (21)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (52)
40.0% (5)
-9.2%
On penalty kill, Carlsson has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. McMichael is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (591).
McMichael shoots left. Carlsson is 35.3% vs left-shot opponents (394).
Home / Away
McMichael
Carlsson
Home
42.1% (444)
38.6% (254)
Away
42.8% (428)
31.6% (307)
By Period
McMichael
Carlsson
P1
42.5%
35.9%
P2
41.9%
33.8%
P3
42.5%
34.3%
OT
100.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
39.7%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.4%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
34.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 14:43 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 10:15 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 00:43 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 13:19 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 13:08 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 09:14 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 03:12 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 18:59 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |