Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Carlsson wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 46.0% vs Zacha 51.9% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 56.0%
Defensive zone
Zacha 60.4%
Neutral zone
Zacha 50.2%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Carlsson
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Carlsson
Zacha
Last 10: Carlsson 6-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
3
4
Carlsson
Zacha
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Zacha
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Carlsson
Zacha
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
47.1% (533)
53.7% (497)
-6.6%
Power Play
46.3% (80)
54.8% (84)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
33.8% (80)
37.5% (64)
-3.7%
On power play, Zacha has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Carlsson is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (452).
Carlsson shoots left. Zacha is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (371).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Zacha
Home
44.4% (340)
51.0% (335)
Away
46.5% (353)
53.5% (310)
By Period
Carlsson
Zacha
P1
48.2%
60.0%
P2
38.4%
48.1%
P3
50.5%
48.8%
OT
44.4%
44.4%
Final 5 min
38.1%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
40.0%▼
43.5%
45.5%
Zacha
48.0%▼
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 13:42 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 07:31 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 03:30 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 14:17 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 15:27 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 01:01 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:16 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:10 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 15:29 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 15:24 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 09:28 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 13:02 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |