Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings). Carlsson wins 40.5% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.4% vs Zacha 49.1% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 14-9 in 23 meetings
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Carlsson
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
14
(23 meetings)
9
14
Carlsson
Zacha
Last 10: Carlsson 6-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
3
9
Carlsson
Zacha
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
3
0
Carlsson
Zacha
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
3
5
Carlsson
Zacha
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
41.1% (1,716)
48.8% (4,953)
-7.7%
Power Play
42.8% (152)
55.8% (788)
-13.0%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (116)
42.0% (547)
-6.7%
On power play, Zacha has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Carlsson is 40.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,391).
Carlsson shoots left. Zacha is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,816).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Zacha
Home
42.9% (956)
49.6% (3,278)
Away
39.1% (1,028)
48.5% (3,010)
By Period
Carlsson
Zacha
P1
44.2%
49.9%
P2
35.8%
49.1%
P3
43.5%
47.9%
OT
41.7%
54.9%
Final 5 min
39.8%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
40.0%▼
43.5%
40.9%
Zacha
48.0%▼
51.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 13:42 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 07:31 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 03:30 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 14:17 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 15:27 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 01:01 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:16 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:10 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 15:29 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 15:24 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 09:28 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 13:02 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 2 | 04:17 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 2 | 04:13 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 1 | 19:30 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 1 | 11:49 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 19:47 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 06:57 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 17:01 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 14:36 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |