Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Carlsson wins 43.0% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Zacha 51.7% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 55.2%
Defensive zone
Zacha 64.9%
Neutral zone
Zacha 50.3%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 51.7%
51.7%
48.3%
Carlsson
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Carlsson
Zacha
Last 10: Carlsson 6-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
3
4
Carlsson
Zacha
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Zacha
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Carlsson
Zacha
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
53.3% (646)
-7.8%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
53.0% (100)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
38.9% (72)
-5.6%
On even strength, Zacha has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Carlsson shoots left. Zacha is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (476).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Zacha
Home
42.5% (428)
51.7% (410)
Away
46.4% (399)
52.2% (408)
By Period
Carlsson
Zacha
P1
45.4%
57.7%
P2
39.7%
48.9%
P3
48.5%
50.2%
OT
41.7%
35.7%
Final 5 min
39.0%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 13:42 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 07:31 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 03:30 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 14:17 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 15:27 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 01:01 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:16 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:10 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 15:29 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 15:24 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 09:28 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 13:02 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |