Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 43.0% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs McLeod 47.8% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 76.0%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 57.5%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 65.3%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 67.7%
67.7%
32.3%
Carlsson
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Carlsson
McLeod
Last 8: Carlsson 2-6 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Carlsson
McLeod
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
3
Carlsson
McLeod
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Carlsson
McLeod
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
49.2% (796)
-3.7%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
44.8% (87)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
43.3% (263)
-10.0%
On penalty kill, McLeod has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Carlsson shoots left. McLeod is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (748).
Home / Away
Carlsson
McLeod
Home
42.5% (428)
49.2% (575)
Away
46.4% (399)
45.9% (571)
By Period
Carlsson
McLeod
P1
45.4%
52.8%
P2
39.7%
45.1%
P3
48.5%
45.6%
OT
41.7%
35.7%
Final 5 min
39.0%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 13:13 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 19:57 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 19:51 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 06:58 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:32 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 09:47 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 08:27 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |