Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +16.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Carlsson wins 35.3% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 37.1% vs McLeod 50.7% (-16.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 79.0%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 74.4%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 78.9%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 77.8%
77.8%
22.2%
Carlsson
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Carlsson
McLeod
Last 8: Carlsson 2-6 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Carlsson
McLeod
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
McLeod
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
4
Carlsson
McLeod
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
34.4% (535)
51.3% (628)
-16.9%
Power Play
42.9% (21)
68.3% (41)
-25.4%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
30.6% (49)
+9.4%
On power play, McLeod has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Carlsson is 35.3% vs left-shot opponents (394).
Carlsson shoots left. McLeod is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (507).
Home / Away
Carlsson
McLeod
Home
38.6% (254)
51.5% (394)
Away
31.6% (307)
50.0% (324)
By Period
Carlsson
McLeod
P1
35.9%
51.5%
P2
33.8%
47.0%
P3
34.3%
54.3%
OT
44.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
36.8%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
34.8%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 15:42 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 12:03 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 11:59 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 04:08 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 09:28 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 06:35 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 14:15 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 2 | 09:11 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |