Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.3% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 42.4% vs McLeod 52.1% (-10.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 76.0%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 66.2%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 74.6%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 72.9%
72.9%
27.1%
Carlsson
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Carlsson
McLeod
Last 5: Carlsson 1-4 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Carlsson
McLeod
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
3
Carlsson
McLeod
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (648)
52.9% (904)
-11.1%
Power Play
37.3% (51)
57.6% (59)
-20.3%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (31)
49.0% (241)
-10.3%
On power play, McLeod has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Carlsson is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (545).
Carlsson shoots left. McLeod is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (784).
Home / Away
Carlsson
McLeod
Home
44.5% (362)
51.8% (612)
Away
38.3% (368)
52.9% (592)
By Period
Carlsson
McLeod
P1
46.3%
55.4%
P2
35.1%
50.8%
P3
43.9%
51.6%
OT
33.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
43.9%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
41.4%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 15:37 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 22, 2024 | 1 | 04:02 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |