Scouting Report
Sam Reinhart holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Reinhart on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 33.5% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 37.1% vs Reinhart 45.1% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 71.2%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 80.7%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 73.3%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 73.6%
73.6%
26.4%
Carlsson
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Carlsson
Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
3
Carlsson
Reinhart
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
1
Carlsson
Reinhart
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
34.4% (535)
44.6% (345)
-10.2%
Power Play
42.9% (21)
43.3% (97)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
43.2% (88)
-3.2%
On even strength, Reinhart has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Carlsson is 33.5% vs right-shot opponents (167).
Carlsson shoots left. Reinhart is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Reinhart
Home
38.6% (254)
47.9% (267)
Away
31.6% (307)
40.3% (263)
By Period
Carlsson
Reinhart
P1
35.9%
45.6%
P2
33.8%
42.0%
P3
34.3%
45.4%
OT
44.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
36.8%
40.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
34.8%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
44.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 16:16 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 08:50 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 06:10 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 03:13 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |