Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Johnston 48.5% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 54.7%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 52.9%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 56.1%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 55.2%
55.2%
44.8%
Carlsson
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Carlsson
Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Johnston
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Carlsson
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
47.8% (623)
-2.3%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
50.8% (63)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
51.4% (35)
-18.1%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Carlsson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Carlsson shoots left. Johnston is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (535).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Johnston
Home
42.5% (428)
47.6% (351)
Away
46.4% (399)
48.9% (370)
By Period
Carlsson
Johnston
P1
45.4%
49.6%
P2
39.7%
47.3%
P3
48.5%
48.0%
OT
41.7%
46.7%
Final 5 min
39.0%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 15:15 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 11:24 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |