Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Carlsson wins 42.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.4% vs Johnston 49.1% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Carlsson leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Johnston 62.9%
Defensive zone
Johnston 85.9%
Neutral zone
Johnston 79.1%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 76.9%
23.1%
76.9%
Carlsson
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
6
(15 meetings)
9
6
Carlsson
Johnston
Last 10: Carlsson 7-3 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
4
1
Carlsson
Johnston
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
4
3
Carlsson
Johnston
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
2
Carlsson
Johnston
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
41.1% (1,716)
49.3% (2,024)
-8.2%
Power Play
42.8% (152)
52.7% (165)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (116)
44.6% (233)
-9.3%
On power play, Johnston has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Carlsson is 42.0% vs right-shot opponents (593).
Carlsson shoots left. Johnston is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,840).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Johnston
Home
42.9% (956)
49.4% (1,211)
Away
39.1% (1,028)
48.7% (1,211)
By Period
Carlsson
Johnston
P1
44.2%
49.7%
P2
35.8%
48.5%
P3
43.5%
48.9%
OT
41.7%
48.0%
Final 5 min
39.8%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
40.0%▼
43.5%
40.9%
Johnston
44.0%▼
47.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 15:15 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 11:24 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 14:33 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:37 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 05:53 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 11:25 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:40 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:22 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 18:12 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 15:44 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 09:55 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 01:01 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 04:41 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 12:51 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |