Leo Carlsson vs Zemgus Girgensons
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.4% vs 43.5%). Look for Girgensons on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Carlsson wins 43.0% vs left-shot opponents — Girgensons shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Girgensons 45.8% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 79.6%
Defensive zone
Girgensons 53.6%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 63.2%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 63.2%
63.2%
36.8%
Carlsson
Girgensons
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Carlsson
Girgensons
Last 5: Carlsson 1-4 Girgensons
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Girgensons
1
4
Carlsson
Girgensons
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Girgensons
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
43.2% (146)
+2.3%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
50.0% (2)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
44.8% (29)
-11.5%
On penalty kill, Girgensons has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Girgensons shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Carlsson shoots left. Girgensons is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (119).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Girgensons
Home
42.5% (428)
40.3% (72)
Away
46.4% (399)
45.7% (105)
By Period
Carlsson
Girgensons
P1
45.4%
43.8%
P2
39.7%
44.6%
P3
48.5%
42.5%
Final 5 min
39.0%
34.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Girgensons
58.0%▲
44.0%
43.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:06 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 19:05 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 02:45 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |