Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Draisaitl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Toews wins 56.1% vs left-shot opponents — Draisaitl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.2% vs Draisaitl 56.4% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 68.1%
Defensive zone
Draisaitl 69.6%
Neutral zone
Draisaitl 69.1%
Result
Leon Draisaitl favored at 68.5%
31.5%
68.5%
Toews
Draisaitl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Toews
Draisaitl
Last 6: Toews 1-5 Draisaitl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
1
3
Toews
Draisaitl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
0
1
Toews
Draisaitl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
0
1
Toews
Draisaitl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Draisaitl
Edge
Even Strength
62.4% (692)
55.9% (835)
+6.5%
Power Play
59.3% (135)
61.8% (228)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
50.0% (40)
-3.1%
On even strength, Toews has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draisaitl shoots left. Toews is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (574).
Toews shoots left. Draisaitl is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (708).
Home / Away
Toews
Draisaitl
Home
60.9% (435)
55.1% (508)
Away
61.8% (424)
58.5% (595)
By Period
Toews
Draisaitl
P1
60.2%
55.8%
P2
65.7%
55.7%
P3
58.2%
59.0%
OT
75.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
58.3%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▬
61.5%
61.4%
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 18:47 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 18:28 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 05:14 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 19:44 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 07:00 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 05:53 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |