Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +18.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Brown wins 36.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brown 39.6% vs Sturm 56.1% (-18.9%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Brown 87.5%
Defensive zone
Brown 52.5%
Neutral zone
Brown 76.3%
Result
Logan Brown favored at 71.3%
71.3%
28.7%
Brown
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Brown
Sturm
Last 10: Brown 3-7 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Brown
Sturm
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
3
Brown
Sturm
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Brown
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brown
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
37.4% (457)
57.1% (2,719)
-19.7%
Power Play
39.4% (33)
61.3% (62)
-21.9%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
51.0% (498)
-26.0%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +26.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Brown is 36.6% vs left-shot opponents (309).
Brown shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Brown
Sturm
Home
39.7% (239)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
35.3% (255)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Brown
Sturm
P1
39.8%
56.5%
P2
33.7%
54.9%
P3
38.9%
57.4%
Final 5 min
42.7%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brown
34.0%▼
36.0%
37.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 17:56 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 00:51 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 2 | 05:21 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 1 | 04:19 | Defensive | Logan Brown |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 1 | 01:37 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 1 | 01:30 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 02:38 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 06:04 | Offensive | Logan Brown |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 05:56 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 01:50 | Offensive | Logan Brown |