Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +21.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Brown wins 37.5% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brown 40.3% vs Sturm 55.2% (-21.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Brown 89.9%
Defensive zone
Brown 56.5%
Neutral zone
Brown 77.8%
Result
Logan Brown favored at 71.2%
71.2%
28.8%
Brown
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Brown
Sturm
Last 6: Brown 1-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Brown
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Brown
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Brown
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brown
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
35.7% (154)
56.1% (716)
-20.4%
Power Play
23.1% (13)
67.7% (31)
-44.6%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
51.1% (133)
-51.1%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +51.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Brown is 37.5% vs left-shot opponents (120).
Brown shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Brown
Sturm
Home
39.7% (73)
55.6% (412)
Away
30.5% (95)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Brown
Sturm
P1
30.4%
59.6%
P2
39.7%
52.0%
P3
32.7%
55.5%
Final 5 min
39.5%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brown
34.0%▼
36.0%
34.5%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 17:56 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 00:51 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 2 | 05:21 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 1 | 04:19 | Defensive | Logan Brown |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 1 | 01:37 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 1 | 01:30 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |