Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Brown on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Brown wins 38.9% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brown 39.6% vs Roy 48.4% (-11.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 68.6%
Defensive zone
Roy 92.7%
Neutral zone
Roy 87.4%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 89.5%
10.5%
89.5%
Brown
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Brown
Roy
Last 5: Brown 4-1 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brown
2
0
Brown
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Brown
2
1
Brown
Roy
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brown
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
37.4% (457)
48.7% (3,719)
-11.3%
Power Play
39.4% (33)
49.5% (283)
-10.1%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
45.5% (477)
-20.5%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Brown is 38.9% vs right-shot opponents (185).
Brown shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Home / Away
Brown
Roy
Home
39.7% (239)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
35.3% (255)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
Brown
Roy
P1
39.8%
50.8%
P2
33.7%
46.3%
P3
38.9%
48.1%
Final 5 min
42.7%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brown
34.0%▼
36.0%
37.4%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 18:13 | Defensive | Logan Brown |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | Logan Brown |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 17:44 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 19:43 | Defensive | Logan Brown |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 15:32 | Neutral | Logan Brown |