Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Cooley wins 40.0% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cooley 39.5% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 78.4%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 72.5%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 70.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 71.5%
28.5%
71.5%
Cooley
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Cooley
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cooley
2
0
Cooley
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cooley
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cooley
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
38.0% (634)
45.5% (1,190)
-7.5%
Power Play
44.7% (38)
56.4% (94)
-11.7%
Penalty Kill
23.5% (17)
40.0% (30)
-16.5%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Cooley is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (250).
Cooley shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
Cooley
MacKinnon
Home
37.7% (332)
47.8% (670)
Away
38.4% (357)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Cooley
MacKinnon
P1
39.1%
45.3%
P2
37.8%
48.5%
P3
36.2%
45.0%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
33.1%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cooley
42.0%▼
49.5%
38.0%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2024 | 3 | 04:13 | Neutral | Logan Cooley |
| Feb 18, 2024 | 1 | 14:45 | Defensive | Logan Cooley |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 02:05 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 09:42 | Defensive | Logan Cooley |