Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Cooley wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cooley 45.4% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cooley 52.5%
Defensive zone
Cooley 51.1%
Neutral zone
Cooley 54.8%
Result
Logan Cooley favored at 52.6%
52.6%
47.4%
Cooley
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Cooley
MacKinnon
Last 7: Cooley 3-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cooley
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
3
Cooley
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cooley
2
0
Cooley
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cooley
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (392)
50.0% (992)
-6.1%
Power Play
46.5% (71)
64.9% (148)
-18.4%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
34.4% (32)
+22.7%
On penalty kill, Cooley has a +22.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Cooley is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (180).
Cooley shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Cooley
MacKinnon
Home
45.0% (211)
53.3% (591)
Away
44.0% (259)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Cooley
MacKinnon
P1
44.0%
49.9%
P2
49.7%
53.2%
P3
38.0%
50.8%
Final 5 min
43.9%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cooley
42.0%▼
49.5%
44.5%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 04:54 | Offensive | Logan Cooley |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Logan Cooley |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 1 | 03:46 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Logan Cooley |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 16:01 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 10:40 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 06:57 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |