Scouting Report
Tommy Novak holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Cooley on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Cooley wins 36.9% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cooley 39.5% vs Novak 43.5% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 75.0%
Defensive zone
Cooley 56.3%
Neutral zone
Novak 57.6%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 57.6%
42.4%
57.6%
Cooley
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Cooley
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cooley
2
1
Cooley
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cooley
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
38.0% (634)
40.7% (460)
-2.7%
Power Play
44.7% (38)
61.5% (39)
-16.8%
Penalty Kill
23.5% (17)
0.0% (1)
+23.5%
On penalty kill, Cooley has a +23.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Cooley is 36.9% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Cooley shoots left. Novak is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Home / Away
Cooley
Novak
Home
37.7% (332)
47.0% (236)
Away
38.4% (357)
37.9% (264)
By Period
Cooley
Novak
P1
39.1%
43.1%
P2
37.8%
43.1%
P3
36.2%
40.1%
Final 5 min
33.1%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cooley
46.0%▲
40.5%
38.0%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 19:44 | Neutral | Logan Cooley |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 02:22 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 07:11 | Neutral | Logan Cooley |