Scouting Report
Tommy Novak holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Cooley on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Cooley wins 40.2% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cooley 42.0% vs Novak 43.6% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 57.6%
Defensive zone
Cooley 50.6%
Neutral zone
Novak 53.8%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 53.8%
46.2%
53.8%
Cooley
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Cooley
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cooley
2
1
Cooley
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cooley
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
41.1% (1,520)
42.2% (1,366)
-1.1%
Power Play
44.7% (208)
53.3% (120)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (43)
50.0% (2)
-8.1%
On power play, Novak has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Cooley is 40.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,116).
Cooley shoots left. Novak is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (955).
Home / Away
Cooley
Novak
Home
41.9% (883)
46.0% (737)
Away
41.1% (888)
40.3% (751)
By Period
Cooley
Novak
P1
41.3%
43.9%
P2
43.1%
44.2%
P3
39.5%
40.9%
OT
100.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
37.1%
40.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cooley
46.0%▲
40.5%
41.5%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 19:44 | Neutral | Logan Cooley |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 02:22 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 07:11 | Neutral | Logan Cooley |