Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Shaw wins 44.5% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Shaw 45.5% vs Sturm 56.1% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 58.9%
Defensive zone
Sturm 88.8%
Neutral zone
Sturm 71.9%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 73.4%
26.6%
73.4%
Shaw
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Shaw
Sturm
Last 5: Shaw 3-2 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Shaw
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Shaw
2
0
Shaw
Sturm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Shaw
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Shaw
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (418)
57.1% (2,719)
-10.7%
Power Play
66.7% (6)
61.3% (62)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (96)
51.0% (498)
-15.6%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Shaw is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Shaw shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Shaw
Sturm
Home
46.2% (236)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
43.3% (284)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Shaw
Sturm
P1
41.3%
56.5%
P2
46.4%
54.9%
P3
46.9%
57.4%
Final 5 min
50.4%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Shaw
46.0%▼
50.5%
44.6%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2021 | 2 | 14:50 | Defensive | Logan Shaw |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 1 | 10:17 | Defensive | Logan Shaw |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 1 | 10:14 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 1 | 07:36 | Offensive | Logan Shaw |