Scouting Report
Luke Kunin holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Kunin wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kunin 46.1% vs Kelly 41.8% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kunin 78.9%
Defensive zone
Kunin 56.9%
Neutral zone
Kunin 65.2%
Result
Luke Kunin favored at 64.5%
64.5%
35.5%
Kunin
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Kunin
Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kunin
1
0
Kunin
Kelly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kunin
Kelly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kunin
1
0
Kunin
Kelly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kunin
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
47.1% (1,622)
41.9% (756)
+5.2%
Power Play
46.4% (138)
0.0% (3)
+46.4%
Penalty Kill
40.2% (333)
37.2% (172)
+3.0%
On power play, Kunin has a +46.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Kunin is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,511).
Kunin shoots right. Kelly is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Home / Away
Kunin
Kelly
Home
45.5% (1,048)
42.5% (475)
Away
46.4% (1,045)
39.3% (456)
By Period
Kunin
Kelly
P1
47.9%
42.4%
P2
45.7%
44.7%
P3
43.9%
35.7%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
42.8%
35.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kunin
46.0%▼
53.0%
46.0%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
40.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 07:44 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 02:05 | Neutral | Luke Kunin |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 01:51 | Defensive | Luke Kunin |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 1 | 14:46 | Offensive | Luke Kunin |