Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kunin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Kunin wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kunin 47.6% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Kunin leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 94.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 76.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 85.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 85.0%
15.0%
85.0%
Kunin
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Kunin
O'Reilly
Last 10: Kunin 8-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Kunin
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kunin
5
0
Kunin
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kunin
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kunin
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (276)
56.2% (983)
-9.8%
Power Play
50.0% (30)
55.5% (254)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (92)
52.0% (102)
-4.2%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kunin is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (287).
Kunin shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Kunin
O'Reilly
Home
45.9% (194)
56.2% (697)
Away
48.0% (204)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Kunin
O'Reilly
P1
43.2%
54.5%
P2
46.3%
55.5%
P3
52.1%
57.1%
Final 5 min
40.4%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kunin
46.0%▼
53.0%
47.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 17:23 | Offensive | Luke Kunin |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2 | 09:22 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 1 | 05:47 | Offensive | Luke Kunin |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 1 | 05:26 | Defensive | Luke Kunin |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 1 | 02:09 | Defensive | Luke Kunin |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 18:38 | Neutral | Luke Kunin |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 04:30 | Defensive | Luke Kunin |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 2 | 11:24 | Defensive | Luke Kunin |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 2 | 10:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 16:37 | Defensive | Luke Kunin |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 16:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |