Connor McDavid vs Macklin Celebrini
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Macklin Celebrini holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Celebrini shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Celebrini 48.9% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 13-5 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Celebrini 59.2%
Defensive zone
Celebrini 57.2%
Neutral zone
Celebrini 58.8%
Result
Macklin Celebrini favored at 58.3%
41.7%
58.3%
McDavid
Celebrini
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
5
(18 meetings)
13
5
McDavid
Celebrini
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Celebrini
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Celebrini
0
3
McDavid
Celebrini
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
1
McDavid
Celebrini
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
8
1
McDavid
Celebrini
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Celebrini
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
48.2% (924)
-0.7%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
52.8% (108)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
56.0% (25)
-9.5%
On penalty kill, Celebrini has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Celebrini shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Celebrini is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (733).
Home / Away
McDavid
Celebrini
Home
50.2% (400)
47.8% (523)
Away
44.7% (365)
49.8% (534)
By Period
McDavid
Celebrini
P1
47.5%
47.8%
P2
48.6%
47.4%
P3
46.7%
51.1%
OT
33.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.3%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Celebrini
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 13:35 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 13:10 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 11:39 | Defensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 11:26 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 08:12 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 12:40 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 08:17 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 05:44 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 08:05 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 01:34 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 06:42 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 01:15 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:49 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 19:46 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 17:07 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |