Macklin Celebrini vs Mathew Barzal
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Macklin Celebrini holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Celebrini on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Celebrini 48.9% vs Barzal 41.4% (+9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Celebrini 87.6%
Defensive zone
Celebrini 76.9%
Neutral zone
Celebrini 84.6%
Result
Macklin Celebrini favored at 86.4%
86.4%
13.6%
Celebrini
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Celebrini
Barzal
Last 5: Celebrini 4-1 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Celebrini
3
0
Celebrini
Barzal
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Celebrini
Barzal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Celebrini
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (924)
40.4% (463)
+7.8%
Power Play
52.8% (108)
34.2% (38)
+18.6%
Penalty Kill
56.0% (25)
28.6% (7)
+27.4%
On penalty kill, Celebrini has a +27.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Celebrini is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Celebrini shoots left. Barzal is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (393).
Home / Away
Celebrini
Barzal
Home
47.8% (523)
38.1% (244)
Away
49.8% (534)
41.3% (264)
By Period
Celebrini
Barzal
P1
47.8%
46.6%
P2
47.4%
35.7%
P3
51.1%
37.7%
OT
57.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
45.2%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Celebrini
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.8%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 04:10 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 19:24 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 19:12 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 03:11 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 1 | 14:16 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |