Macklin Celebrini vs Mathew Barzal
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Macklin Celebrini holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Celebrini on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Celebrini wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Celebrini 48.6% vs Barzal 42.2% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Celebrini 82.7%
Defensive zone
Celebrini 79.1%
Neutral zone
Celebrini 84.7%
Result
Macklin Celebrini favored at 83.5%
83.5%
16.5%
Celebrini
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Celebrini
Barzal
Last 5: Celebrini 4-1 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Celebrini
3
0
Celebrini
Barzal
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Celebrini
Barzal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Celebrini
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (1,825)
41.9% (3,565)
+5.8%
Power Play
53.8% (247)
43.4% (205)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (36)
42.3% (26)
+13.3%
On penalty kill, Celebrini has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Celebrini is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (664).
Celebrini shoots left. Barzal is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,699).
Home / Away
Celebrini
Barzal
Home
47.7% (1,076)
43.1% (1,895)
Away
49.4% (1,032)
40.9% (1,901)
By Period
Celebrini
Barzal
P1
47.2%
40.7%
P2
46.9%
44.4%
P3
51.5%
41.0%
OT
47.4%
27.6%
Final 5 min
47.1%
39.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Celebrini
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.5%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 04:10 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 19:24 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 19:12 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 03:11 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 1 | 14:16 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |