Macklin Celebrini vs Ryan O'Reilly
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Celebrini 48.7% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Celebrini 61.1%
Defensive zone
Celebrini 54.9%
Neutral zone
Celebrini 57.6%
Result
Macklin Celebrini favored at 57.2%
57.2%
42.8%
Celebrini
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Celebrini
O'Reilly
Last 9: Celebrini 4-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Celebrini
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Celebrini
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Celebrini
2
1
Celebrini
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Celebrini
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (993)
55.7% (856)
-7.9%
Power Play
54.1% (111)
57.5% (233)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
56.0% (25)
50.0% (144)
+6.0%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Celebrini is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (775).
Celebrini shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Celebrini
O'Reilly
Home
48.5% (538)
55.5% (616)
Away
48.7% (591)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Celebrini
O'Reilly
P1
48.1%
58.1%
P2
46.8%
54.9%
P3
51.0%
53.9%
OT
57.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
46.1%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Celebrini
48.0%▲
44.5%
48.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 14:50 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 14:14 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 13:15 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 11:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 12:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 11:40 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 07:49 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 05:29 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 03:45 | Defensive | Macklin Celebrini |