Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Celebrini on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Celebrini 48.6% vs Steel 50.2% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Celebrini leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Steel 50.4%
Defensive zone
Steel 63.1%
Neutral zone
Steel 62.9%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 60.5%
39.5%
60.5%
Celebrini
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Celebrini
Steel
Last 10: Celebrini 6-4 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
2
Celebrini
Steel
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Celebrini
4
2
Celebrini
Steel
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Celebrini
2
0
Celebrini
Steel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Celebrini
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (1,825)
50.6% (2,876)
-2.9%
Power Play
53.8% (247)
62.6% (179)
-8.8%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (36)
37.4% (254)
+18.2%
On penalty kill, Celebrini has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Celebrini is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,444).
Celebrini shoots left. Steel is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,072).
Home / Away
Celebrini
Steel
Home
47.7% (1,076)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
49.4% (1,032)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
Celebrini
Steel
P1
47.2%
51.9%
P2
46.9%
49.5%
P3
51.5%
49.6%
OT
47.4%
41.9%
Final 5 min
47.1%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Celebrini
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.5%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 16:24 | Defensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 19:01 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 04:46 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 3 | 12:12 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 2 | 13:26 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 2 | 09:57 | Defensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 2 | 09:46 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 1 | 16:19 | Defensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 1 | 10:39 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 1 | 03:00 | Defensive | Macklin Celebrini |