Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Khusnutdinov wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Khusnutdinov 44.8% vs Cates 45.1% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Khusnutdinov 53.0%
Defensive zone
Khusnutdinov 59.3%
Neutral zone
Khusnutdinov 55.0%
Result
Marat Khusnutdinov favored at 54.4%
54.4%
45.6%
Khusnutdinov
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Khusnutdinov
Cates
Last 7: Khusnutdinov 2-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Khusnutdinov
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
2
3
Khusnutdinov
Cates
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Khusnutdinov
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (368)
46.7% (912)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
32.3% (65)
35.0% (137)
-2.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Khusnutdinov is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Khusnutdinov shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Home / Away
Khusnutdinov
Cates
Home
44.4% (180)
46.1% (521)
Away
43.1% (253)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Khusnutdinov
Cates
P1
50.7%
48.0%
P2
44.4%
42.3%
P3
37.0%
44.3%
OT
0.0%
31.3%
Final 5 min
47.0%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Khusnutdinov
40.0%▬
41.0%
43.6%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 18:13 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 17:50 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 10:20 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 05:59 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 05:50 | Neutral | Marat Khusnutdinov |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 14:54 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 06:50 | Neutral | Marat Khusnutdinov |