Scouting Report
Marco Kasper holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kasper on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kasper wins 42.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kasper 46.8% vs Kelly 41.8% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kasper 93.0%
Defensive zone
Kasper 69.4%
Neutral zone
Kasper 83.9%
Result
Marco Kasper favored at 87.8%
87.8%
12.2%
Kasper
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
0
(7 meetings)
7
0
Kasper
Kelly
Last 7: Kasper 7-0 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kasper
3
0
Kasper
Kelly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kasper
4
0
Kasper
Kelly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kasper
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (944)
41.9% (756)
+5.1%
Power Play
46.9% (32)
0.0% (3)
+46.9%
Penalty Kill
30.6% (36)
37.2% (172)
-6.6%
On power play, Kasper has a +46.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Kasper is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (671).
Kasper shoots left. Kelly is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (626).
Home / Away
Kasper
Kelly
Home
49.1% (464)
42.5% (475)
Away
44.2% (548)
39.3% (456)
By Period
Kasper
Kelly
P1
47.8%
42.4%
P2
51.0%
44.7%
P3
39.9%
35.7%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
41.2%
35.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kasper
52.0%▬
52.5%
46.4%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
40.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 19:52 | Offensive | Marco Kasper |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 15:48 | Offensive | Marco Kasper |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 11:43 | Offensive | Marco Kasper |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Marco Kasper |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Marco Kasper |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 10:48 | Neutral | Marco Kasper |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Marco Kasper |