Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Poehling on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Kasper wins 42.6% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kasper 46.8% vs Poehling 48.1% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kasper 77.3%
Defensive zone
Poehling 58.4%
Neutral zone
Kasper 57.8%
Result
Marco Kasper favored at 55.1%
55.1%
44.9%
Kasper
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Kasper
Poehling
Last 6: Kasper 2-4 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kasper
1
0
Kasper
Poehling
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
1
4
Kasper
Poehling
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kasper
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (944)
49.4% (2,726)
-2.4%
Power Play
46.9% (32)
51.6% (93)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
30.6% (36)
41.6% (623)
-11.0%
On penalty kill, Poehling has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Kasper is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (671).
Kasper shoots left. Poehling is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,301).
Home / Away
Kasper
Poehling
Home
49.1% (464)
49.3% (1,688)
Away
44.2% (548)
46.9% (1,754)
By Period
Kasper
Poehling
P1
47.8%
50.9%
P2
51.0%
47.0%
P3
39.9%
46.9%
OT
66.7%
37.9%
Final 5 min
41.2%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kasper
52.0%▬
52.5%
46.4%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 16:36 | Defensive | Marco Kasper |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 2 | 10:45 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 2 | 10:40 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1 | 02:10 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Marco Kasper |