Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kasper wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kasper 49.8% vs Hertl 57.2% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 10-0 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Kasper 69.0%
Defensive zone
Kasper 90.0%
Neutral zone
Kasper 75.8%
Result
Marco Kasper favored at 78.0%
78.0%
22.0%
Kasper
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
10
(10 meetings)
0
10
Kasper
Hertl
Last 10: Kasper 0-10 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Kasper
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Kasper
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Kasper
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kasper
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (350)
58.1% (823)
-7.0%
Power Play
33.3% (9)
56.2% (265)
-22.9%
Penalty Kill
31.6% (19)
62.9% (35)
-31.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +31.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kasper is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (252).
Kasper shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Kasper
Hertl
Home
51.1% (184)
59.7% (561)
Away
48.5% (194)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Kasper
Hertl
P1
53.8%
51.6%
P2
52.2%
63.8%
P3
42.6%
58.6%
OT
100.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
44.3%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kasper
52.0%▬
52.5%
49.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 05:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 01:50 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 12:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 11:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 17:57 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:46 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 19:31 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 03:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:23 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |