Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Kasper wins 42.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kasper 46.8% vs Hertl 54.2% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 21-4 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Kasper 93.8%
Defensive zone
Kasper 83.6%
Neutral zone
Kasper 86.7%
Result
Marco Kasper favored at 88.5%
88.5%
11.5%
Kasper
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
21
(25 meetings)
4
21
Kasper
Hertl
Last 10: Kasper 0-10 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
8
Kasper
Hertl
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
6
Kasper
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
7
Kasper
Hertl
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kasper
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (944)
53.8% (8,268)
-6.8%
Power Play
46.9% (32)
59.3% (1,975)
-12.4%
Penalty Kill
30.6% (36)
46.3% (806)
-15.7%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kasper is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (671).
Kasper shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Kasper
Hertl
Home
49.1% (464)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
44.2% (548)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Kasper
Hertl
P1
47.8%
53.6%
P2
51.0%
54.1%
P3
39.9%
55.3%
OT
66.7%
46.5%
Final 5 min
41.2%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kasper
52.0%▬
52.5%
46.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 05:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 01:50 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 12:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 11:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 17:57 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:46 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 19:31 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 03:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:23 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:36 | Neutral | Marco Kasper |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 15:16 | Offensive | Marco Kasper |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 11:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 18:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 18:02 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 11:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:46 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:12 | Neutral | Marco Kasper |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:53 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 03:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |