Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Kasper wins 42.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kasper 45.6% vs Hertl 55.4% (-11.0%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 11-4 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Kasper 82.2%
Defensive zone
Kasper 80.6%
Neutral zone
Kasper 78.3%
Result
Marco Kasper favored at 80.3%
80.3%
19.7%
Kasper
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
11
(15 meetings)
4
11
Kasper
Hertl
Last 10: Kasper 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
5
Kasper
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Kasper
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Kasper
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kasper
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.1% (586)
54.1% (717)
-9.0%
Power Play
52.2% (23)
61.9% (210)
-9.7%
Penalty Kill
29.4% (17)
58.1% (31)
-28.7%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +28.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kasper is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (411).
Kasper shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Kasper
Hertl
Home
47.9% (280)
58.1% (492)
Away
42.5% (346)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Kasper
Hertl
P1
45.8%
57.1%
P2
50.0%
54.0%
P3
38.4%
56.6%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
40.3%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kasper
52.0%▬
52.5%
44.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:36 | Neutral | Marco Kasper |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 15:16 | Offensive | Marco Kasper |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 11:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 18:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 18:02 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 11:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:46 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:12 | Neutral | Marco Kasper |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:53 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 03:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:35 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 15:23 | Neutral | Marco Kasper |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:47 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |