Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rossi 46.9% vs Duchene 54.1% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 14-4 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Rossi 82.6%
Defensive zone
Rossi 80.5%
Neutral zone
Rossi 76.7%
Result
Marco Rossi favored at 80.9%
80.9%
19.1%
Rossi
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
14
(18 meetings)
4
14
Rossi
Duchene
Last 10: Rossi 2-8 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
7
Rossi
Duchene
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
6
Rossi
Duchene
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rossi
2
1
Rossi
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rossi
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (2,140)
53.9% (10,396)
-6.9%
Power Play
47.3% (188)
56.9% (1,665)
-9.6%
Penalty Kill
34.1% (44)
49.1% (468)
-15.0%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Rossi is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,529).
Rossi shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Home / Away
Rossi
Duchene
Home
47.8% (1,207)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
45.7% (1,165)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Rossi
Duchene
P1
47.3%
54.5%
P2
44.8%
54.5%
P3
48.3%
53.4%
OT
45.8%
56.3%
Final 5 min
44.2%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rossi
60.0%▲
51.5%
46.8%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 05:13 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 05:51 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 2 | 12:28 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 2 | 08:54 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 2 | 05:12 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 1 | 08:27 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 27, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 18:58 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 17:13 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 14:06 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 18:30 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 10:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 11:56 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 09:03 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 3 | 12:57 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 2 | 13:33 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 2 | 06:55 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 3 | 13:11 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |