Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rossi 45.3% vs Duchene 55.6% (-11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rossi 59.8%
Defensive zone
Rossi 56.0%
Neutral zone
Rossi 59.5%
Result
Marco Rossi favored at 56.9%
56.9%
43.1%
Rossi
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Rossi
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
3
Rossi
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rossi
1
0
Rossi
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rossi
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
44.5% (701)
56.5% (566)
-12.0%
Power Play
56.1% (41)
61.3% (62)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (7)
22.2% (9)
-22.2%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Rossi is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (468).
Rossi shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Rossi
Duchene
Home
46.8% (385)
56.6% (318)
Away
42.6% (364)
56.4% (319)
By Period
Rossi
Duchene
P1
42.8%
57.2%
P2
43.9%
55.1%
P3
47.4%
55.6%
OT
50.0%
81.3%
Final 5 min
37.3%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rossi
60.0%▲
51.5%
44.7%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2024 | 3 | 12:57 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 2 | 13:33 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 2 | 06:55 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 3 | 13:11 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |