Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Rossi wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rossi 47.1% vs Duchene 52.1% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 11-3 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Rossi 63.1%
Defensive zone
Rossi 68.2%
Neutral zone
Rossi 65.7%
Result
Marco Rossi favored at 64.5%
64.5%
35.5%
Rossi
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
11
(14 meetings)
3
11
Rossi
Duchene
Last 10: Rossi 2-8 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
7
Rossi
Duchene
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
3
Rossi
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Rossi
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rossi
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (879)
53.0% (723)
-6.5%
Power Play
48.6% (105)
49.5% (101)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
43.8% (16)
+6.2%
On even strength, Duchene has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Rossi is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (645).
Rossi shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Home / Away
Rossi
Duchene
Home
47.5% (520)
54.9% (408)
Away
46.0% (472)
50.0% (432)
By Period
Rossi
Duchene
P1
47.8%
52.5%
P2
44.2%
51.7%
P3
48.7%
53.6%
OT
45.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.6%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rossi
60.0%▲
51.5%
46.8%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 05:13 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 05:51 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 2 | 12:28 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 2 | 08:54 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 2 | 05:12 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 1 | 08:27 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 27, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 18:58 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 17:13 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 14:06 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 18:30 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 10:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 11:56 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 09:03 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |