Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Rossi on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Rossi wins 39.1% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rossi 45.3% vs Bjugstad 49.3% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rossi 62.6%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 81.3%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 55.2%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 67.7%
32.3%
67.7%
Rossi
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Rossi
Bjugstad
Last 9: Rossi 5-4 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Rossi
Bjugstad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
2
3
Rossi
Bjugstad
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rossi
3
0
Rossi
Bjugstad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rossi
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
44.5% (701)
50.7% (906)
-6.2%
Power Play
56.1% (41)
48.1% (108)
+8.0%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (7)
44.4% (239)
-44.4%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +44.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Rossi is 39.1% vs right-shot opponents (281).
Rossi shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (906).
Home / Away
Rossi
Bjugstad
Home
46.8% (385)
49.8% (643)
Away
42.6% (364)
48.7% (610)
By Period
Rossi
Bjugstad
P1
42.8%
49.4%
P2
43.9%
50.5%
P3
47.4%
47.9%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
37.3%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rossi
60.0%▲
51.5%
44.7%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2024 | 3 | 16:48 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 08:08 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 2 | 08:10 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 2 | 04:01 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 2 | 01:07 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 17:05 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 08:53 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 08:41 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:38 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |