Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rossi 50.4% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 64.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 65.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 64.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 64.2%
35.8%
64.2%
Rossi
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Rossi
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rossi
2
0
Rossi
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rossi
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (400)
55.4% (826)
-2.6%
Power Play
36.1% (36)
57.9% (221)
-21.8%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (27)
50.4% (129)
-13.4%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +21.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Rossi is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (318).
Rossi shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Rossi
O'Reilly
Home
50.0% (242)
55.8% (579)
Away
51.1% (221)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Rossi
O'Reilly
P1
54.9%
57.7%
P2
48.7%
54.8%
P3
47.9%
54.3%
OT
40.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.1%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rossi
60.0%▲
51.5%
50.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 11:27 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 12:09 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |