Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Rossi on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rossi 46.9% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-9.2%)
H2H factor
Rossi leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 75.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 89.3%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 77.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 80.1%
19.9%
80.1%
Rossi
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
6
(16 meetings)
10
6
Rossi
O'Reilly
Last 10: Rossi 8-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rossi
3
0
Rossi
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rossi
3
1
Rossi
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
5
Rossi
O'Reilly
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rossi
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (2,140)
56.2% (15,260)
-9.2%
Power Play
47.3% (188)
58.8% (3,445)
-11.5%
Penalty Kill
34.1% (44)
51.4% (2,811)
-17.3%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Rossi is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,529).
Rossi shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Rossi
O'Reilly
Home
47.8% (1,207)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
45.7% (1,165)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Rossi
O'Reilly
P1
47.3%
55.6%
P2
44.8%
57.0%
P3
48.3%
55.1%
OT
45.8%
62.2%
Final 5 min
44.2%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rossi
60.0%▲
51.5%
46.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 11:27 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 12:09 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 07:28 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:42 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 06:57 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 06:46 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 06:39 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 03:19 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 09:48 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 1 | 09:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 1 | 17:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 11:12 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 11:14 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |