Mark Kastelic vs Ryan Carpenter
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kastelic wins 58.7% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs Carpenter 48.5% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 71.0%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 87.3%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 74.0%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 76.9%
76.9%
23.1%
Kastelic
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Kastelic
Carpenter
Last 6: Kastelic 4-2 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
1
Kastelic
Carpenter
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kastelic
Carpenter
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,613)
49.6% (2,027)
+7.4%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
41.5% (41)
+38.5%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (274)
43.9% (467)
+9.7%
On power play, Kastelic has a +38.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Kastelic is 58.7% vs right-shot opponents (492).
Kastelic shoots right. Carpenter is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (695).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Carpenter
Home
58.9% (895)
51.2% (1,290)
Away
55.1% (1,017)
45.5% (1,245)
By Period
Kastelic
Carpenter
P1
58.5%
49.6%
P2
56.9%
47.7%
P3
55.3%
48.0%
OT
53.8%
55.6%
Final 5 min
59.6%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 06:21 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 03:05 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 14:54 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 11:57 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 07:14 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 04:29 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |