Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Kastelic wins 58.3% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 55.9% vs Carpenter 52.2% (+2.9%)
Offensive zone
Carpenter 74.2%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 81.4%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 52.5%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Kastelic
Carpenter
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (476)
53.1% (113)
+4.9%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
100.0% (1)
-25.0%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (106)
60.0% (10)
-9.1%
On power play, Carpenter has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Kastelic is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (199).
Kastelic shoots right. Carpenter is 61.1% vs right-shot opponents (36).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Carpenter
Home
64.9% (265)
58.5% (65)
Away
50.5% (325)
49.2% (59)
By Period
Kastelic
Carpenter
P1
58.5%
65.8%
P2
55.6%
50.0%
P3
56.8%
47.9%
Final 5 min
62.6%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
54.0%