Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Kastelic wins 58.7% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs Johansen 53.3% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Johansen leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Johansen 85.1%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 75.7%
Neutral zone
Johansen 55.0%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 68.5%
31.5%
68.5%
Kastelic
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Kastelic
Johansen
Last 10: Kastelic 3-7 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
2
6
Kastelic
Johansen
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
1
Kastelic
Johansen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,613)
53.1% (11,017)
+3.9%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
56.2% (2,163)
+23.8%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (274)
50.5% (978)
+3.1%
On power play, Kastelic has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Kastelic is 58.7% vs right-shot opponents (492).
Kastelic shoots right. Johansen is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (4,371).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Johansen
Home
58.9% (895)
55.0% (7,001)
Away
55.1% (1,017)
51.7% (7,158)
By Period
Kastelic
Johansen
P1
58.5%
53.2%
P2
56.9%
53.9%
P3
55.3%
52.8%
OT
53.8%
58.2%
Final 5 min
59.6%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 04:05 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 03:55 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 01:27 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 9, 2023 | 3 | 19:31 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 9, 2023 | 3 | 19:28 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 9, 2023 | 2 | 15:28 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 2 | 13:49 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 1 | 10:39 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 7, 2022 | 2 | 19:52 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 7, 2022 | 2 | 10:15 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 7, 2022 | 2 | 02:11 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |