Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.2% vs 46.9%). Look for Nazar on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 46.6% vs Scheifele 47.2% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 77.0%
Defensive zone
Nazar 53.4%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 58.4%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 58.8%
41.2%
58.8%
Nazar
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Nazar
Scheifele
Last 5: Nazar 4-1 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nazar
Scheifele
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
3
0
Nazar
Scheifele
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (533)
46.5% (878)
+0.4%
Power Play
49.2% (132)
48.3% (174)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
25.6% (39)
50.0% (54)
-24.4%
On penalty kill, Scheifele has a +24.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Nazar is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (200).
Nazar shoots right. Scheifele is 42.7% vs right-shot opponents (246).
Home / Away
Nazar
Scheifele
Home
45.0% (329)
46.2% (571)
Away
47.2% (375)
47.7% (535)
By Period
Nazar
Scheifele
P1
47.2%
51.9%
P2
43.1%
45.6%
P3
46.8%
43.9%
OT
75.0%
27.3%
Final 5 min
42.9%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
46.2%
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:29 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 06:59 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 08:39 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 18:48 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 05:21 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |