Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.4% vs 49.2%). Look for Schmaltz on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Scheifele wins 46.1% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 49.5% vs Schmaltz 49.4% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 57.7%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 52.5%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 51.6%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 55.2%
44.8%
55.2%
Scheifele
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Scheifele
Schmaltz
Last 7: Scheifele 1-6 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
1
3
Scheifele
Schmaltz
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Scheifele
Schmaltz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
2
Scheifele
Schmaltz
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (981)
48.1% (268)
+0.6%
Power Play
53.2% (250)
50.5% (91)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (37)
58.8% (17)
-15.6%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Scheifele is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (343).
Scheifele shoots right. Schmaltz is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (85).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Schmaltz
Home
50.0% (672)
49.0% (206)
Away
48.8% (596)
49.4% (170)
By Period
Scheifele
Schmaltz
P1
51.4%
53.6%
P2
45.1%
46.2%
P3
51.9%
50.4%
OT
58.3%
16.7%
Final 5 min
49.0%
39.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
49.4%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2025 | 1 | 05:08 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 1 | 02:00 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:22 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 12:33 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 08:38 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 04:06 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |