Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 46.8% vs Steel 50.2% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Scheifele leads 19-9 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Steel 55.2%
Defensive zone
Steel 78.7%
Neutral zone
Steel 75.1%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 64.8%
35.2%
64.8%
Scheifele
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
9
(28 meetings)
19
9
Scheifele
Steel
Last 10: Scheifele 8-2 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
11
4
Scheifele
Steel
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
2
1
Scheifele
Steel
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Scheifele
6
4
Scheifele
Steel
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (12,036)
50.6% (2,876)
-4.3%
Power Play
50.2% (2,563)
62.6% (179)
-12.4%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (598)
37.4% (254)
+4.2%
On power play, Steel has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Scheifele is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (10,821).
Scheifele shoots right. Steel is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,237).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Steel
Home
48.9% (7,644)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
44.7% (7,554)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
Scheifele
Steel
P1
48.2%
51.9%
P2
45.6%
49.5%
P3
46.8%
49.6%
OT
42.5%
41.9%
Final 5 min
45.6%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.8%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 17:35 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 06:49 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 12:38 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:01 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 18:42 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 14:06 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 01:31 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 11:25 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 09:09 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 04:58 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 06:54 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 05:17 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 07:44 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 04:17 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 10:17 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 03:51 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 18:13 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 03:58 | Neutral | Sam Steel |