Scouting Report
Mark Scheifele holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Scheifele wins 44.4% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 46.9% vs Thompson 45.9% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 60.7%
Defensive zone
Thompson 58.0%
Neutral zone
Thompson 51.4%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
Scheifele
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Scheifele
Thompson
Last 9: Scheifele 2-7 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
3
Scheifele
Thompson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
Scheifele
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
2
Scheifele
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (1,016)
45.4% (721)
+0.8%
Power Play
48.7% (197)
49.5% (103)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (60)
35.3% (34)
+13.0%
On penalty kill, Scheifele has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Scheifele is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Scheifele shoots right. Thompson is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (239).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Thompson
Home
46.0% (645)
46.1% (438)
Away
47.3% (628)
44.8% (420)
By Period
Scheifele
Thompson
P1
51.7%
46.9%
P2
44.7%
47.3%
P3
43.7%
42.1%
OT
33.3%
42.9%
Final 5 min
47.3%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
42.0%▼
47.0%
46.7%
Thompson
54.0%▲
45.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 12:06 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 00:54 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 00:36 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 2 | 01:17 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 1 | 12:05 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 1 | 01:08 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 07:40 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 07:38 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2 | 10:56 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |