Scouting Report
Mark Scheifele holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Scheifele wins 42.7% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 47.2% vs Thompson 45.3% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 54.8%
Defensive zone
Thompson 71.6%
Neutral zone
Thompson 64.8%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 62.6%
37.4%
62.6%
Scheifele
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Scheifele
Thompson
Last 9: Scheifele 2-7 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
3
Scheifele
Thompson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
Scheifele
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
2
Scheifele
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (878)
44.9% (642)
+1.6%
Power Play
48.3% (174)
47.9% (94)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (54)
33.3% (33)
+16.7%
On penalty kill, Scheifele has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Scheifele is 42.7% vs right-shot opponents (246).
Scheifele shoots right. Thompson is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Thompson
Home
46.2% (571)
46.0% (391)
Away
47.7% (535)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Scheifele
Thompson
P1
51.9%
48.1%
P2
45.6%
44.9%
P3
43.9%
41.2%
OT
27.3%
42.9%
Final 5 min
47.7%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.9%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 12:06 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 00:54 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 00:36 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 2 | 01:17 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 1 | 12:05 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 1 | 01:08 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 07:40 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 07:38 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2 | 10:56 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |