Scouting Report
Mark Scheifele holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Scheifele wins 46.1% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 49.5% vs Thompson 43.7% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Thompson 66.5%
Defensive zone
Thompson 76.3%
Neutral zone
Thompson 67.1%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 72.0%
28.0%
72.0%
Scheifele
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
8
(13 meetings)
5
8
Scheifele
Thompson
Last 10: Scheifele 4-6 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Scheifele
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
6
Scheifele
Thompson
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Scheifele
3
1
Scheifele
Thompson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (981)
41.9% (597)
+6.8%
Power Play
53.2% (250)
50.5% (95)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (37)
25.0% (12)
+18.2%
On penalty kill, Scheifele has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Scheifele is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (343).
Scheifele shoots right. Thompson is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (190).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Thompson
Home
50.0% (672)
47.1% (367)
Away
48.8% (596)
38.0% (337)
By Period
Scheifele
Thompson
P1
51.4%
44.2%
P2
45.1%
41.6%
P3
51.9%
42.9%
OT
58.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
49.4%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2025 | 3 | 17:49 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 3 | 17:03 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:32 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:28 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 08:44 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 03:04 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 02:59 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 16:26 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 09:55 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 09:43 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 09:38 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 07:38 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 01:04 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |