Scouting Report
Mark Scheifele holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Scheifele wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 48.3% vs Johnson 45.7% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 80.9%
Defensive zone
Scheifele 63.8%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 72.0%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 68.0%
68.0%
32.0%
Scheifele
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Scheifele
Johnson
Last 8: Scheifele 6-2 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
1
0
Scheifele
Johnson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
3
2
Scheifele
Johnson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Scheifele
2
0
Scheifele
Johnson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (1,045)
44.6% (285)
+3.5%
Power Play
48.6% (181)
46.7% (60)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (27)
16.7% (6)
+27.7%
On penalty kill, Scheifele has a +27.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Scheifele is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (361).
Scheifele shoots right. Johnson is 47.4% vs right-shot opponents (78).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Johnson
Home
52.7% (630)
50.8% (179)
Away
43.5% (623)
37.8% (172)
By Period
Scheifele
Johnson
P1
50.3%
41.3%
P2
46.8%
41.8%
P3
47.5%
49.6%
OT
36.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.1%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2024 | 2 | 04:18 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 11:31 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 04:02 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 18:44 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 18:35 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 06:23 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 18:24 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 05:36 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |